USD dips as ADP report a big miss


US ADP reported private payrolls rose a mere 67k in November following a revised 121k (was 125k) October gain. That’s a big miss. The weakness was in the goods producing sector, likely a function of the UAW strike and the impact on peripheral workers, with an -18k drop thanks to -6k declines in each of the categories manufacturing, construction, and natural resources. The service sector added 85k with a 39k climb in education and 28k increase in professional business services offsetting a 15k decline in trade & transport. The headline miss adds to the disappointing Manufacturing ISM report yesterday and ahead of today’s more significant and important Non-Manufacturing ISM report.

It was the lowest number since May (46,000) and continues the trend of decelerating job growth. The ADP private payrolls are used as a rough guide for the more important NFP employment report on Friday, which has also been declining since the August peak and trending lower all year.

The Dollar headed lower following the ADP jobs miss, taking EURUSD to two-week highs over 1.1100 from 1.1080, Cable breached 1.3100 and USDJPY slipped to 108.55 from over 108.70.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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