Events to Look Out for Next Week

  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German GDP is expected to have grown by 0.3% on an annualized rate in the first quarter of the year, compared to -1.9% fall in Q4 2020.
  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. May’s numbers are expected to incline slightly.

Tuesday –26 May 2020

  • Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 13:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to rebound to 99.0 from a 6-year low of 86.9 in April, versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 25.3 in February of 2009. All of the available confidence measures were oscillating near historic highs before being crushed by COVID-19, and even with big drop-backs to what are likely to be April lows, it’s remarkable how firm the consumer measures have stayed relative to prior recessions.
  • New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – The new home sales fell -15.4% to a 10-month low of 627k in March after -48k in downward revisions, leaving a level of March activity that tracked our assumptions, but a weaker report overall thanks to the revisions.

Wednesday – 27 May 2020

  • EU Financial Stability Review (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The Financial Stability Review is published twice a year and provides an overview of potential risks to financial stability in the euro area.

Thursday – 28 May 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – No net revision in the -4.8% Q1 GDP contraction rate is anticipated, though with many offsetting component revisions. The revised Q1 data will still depict a quarter that was likely posting respectable 2% growth until mid-March, when mandatory shutdowns prompted a dramatic output plunge
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims fell -249k to 2,438k in the week ended May 16 following the -489k drop to 2,687k previously (remember there was a problem with Connecticut last week with a big overstatement).
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -18.0% in April with a -21% plunge in transportation orders, after a -15.3% headline orders decrease in March that included a -41.5% transportation orders decline. Defense orders should fall by -7%, following a -1.7% March drop. Boeing orders fell to 0 planes from 31 in March and 18 in February.
  • Tokyo Core CPI and Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In May, the CPI ex Food is expected to have grown at 0.1% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to held unchanged.

Friday – 29 May 2020

  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for May is forecasted to slow slightly, at 0.2% y/y from 0.3% y/y last month while core is seen at 0.9% y/y
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – GDP slowed to an 0.3% growth pace in Q4, matching market and BoC expectations following a 1.1% gain in Q3 (was 1.3%). A slowing in business investment and weakness in trade drove the slowing in Q4 GDP.
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 12:30) – A  2.5% increase in personal income in April is expected after a -2.0% decrease in March, alongside a -17.1% plunge in consumption that follows a -7.5% decrease in March. April income will face a big boost from the CARES Act.We assume that the Treasury distributed $160 bln in direct payments to families ($1,200 checks) and $65 bln in federal jobless benefits, and these are annualized in the income accounts.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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