Events to Look Out For Next Week

  • Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Despite the continuous reduction in building permits, with the indicator registering an 8.4% decline in December, expectations are that growth will stand at 0% in January.

Tuesday – 05 March 2019

  • Caixin Services PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Chinese Services PMI is expected to have increased to 53.8 in February, up from 53.6 in January.
  • Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No change is expected in the RBA meeting, however, the central bank could offer more insights on its future actions.
  • Markit Composite PMI and Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00 & GMT 10:00) – The EU Composite PMI is expected to remain flat at 51.4, while Retail Sales are forecast to grow by 1.2% y/y in February, compared to 0.8% in the previous month.
  • Market Services PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK’s PMI is forecast to rise to 50.2 in February, compared to 50.1 in January.
  • US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – Both the Services and the Composite Markit PMIs are expected to have remained flat in February, at 56.2 and 55.8 respectively. In contrast, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 57.3 compared to 56.7 in January.
  • New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – New Home Sales are expected to follow the broader path of the housing market in the US and register a deceleration, standing at 0.59M in February, down from 0.66M in January.
  • RBA Governor Speech (AUD, GMT 22:10) – The RBA Governor is expected to discuss the RBA decision that could potentially move the markets like last time.

Wednesday – 06 March 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 15:00) – BoC is also expected to pursue a “wait-and-see” stance, as the markets believe that no interest rate hikes are to take place in this meeting.

Thursday – 07 March 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 12:45) – The ECB, also following the line set by other central banks, is not expected to raise interest rates in its forthcoming meeting, but it could offer some guidance regarding any tools it intends to employ in the near future.

Friday – 08 March 2019

  • Trade Balance (CNY, N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to have declined to $25.6 billion, compared to $39.2 billion in January, on account of the continued trade tensions.
  • EVENT OF THE WEEK: Non-Farm Payrolls and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – NFPs are expected to have increased by 170k in February, compared to 304k in January, while Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to increase by 3.3% y/y, compared to 3.2% y/y in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to have decreased to 3.8%, a 0.2% reduction from the 4% level of January.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The unemployment rate is expected to have decrased to 5.7% compared to 5.8% in January, while participation rate is forecast to decline to 65.4, from 65.6% in January.

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Dr Nektarios Michail

Market Analyst

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