FX News Today
- Stock markets mostly managed slight gains in quiet trade across Asia as Japan and mainland China remained closed for holidays and with investors positioning for the US jobs report.
- BoE yesterday warned that in the central scenario of a smooth Brexit transition rates will have to go up more and faster than markets currently expect.
- Overnight big drop in Australian Building approvals as the market corrected from a big rise in February.
- Earnings also remained in focus with better than expected profits reported by HSBC helping to underpin shares in Hong Kong while a profit warning from Macquarie weighed on the ASX.
- US stock futures are also moving higher after closing broadly lower on Thursday, following alongside Treasury yields as the market further digested yesterday’s signal from the Fed that a rate cut is not on the menu this year.
- US-Sino trade talks also remain in focus and will add to volatility until a deal is finally on the table.
Charts of the Day
- EURUSD touched a low of 1.1165 into the London open. The pair dropped nearly 100 points from the highs, while the close yesterday under the 1.1200 mark suggests an increasing bearish bias for the Euro. Resistance now sits at 1.1200, or further up to 1.1220 (20 DMA), with Support at 1.1145, the April 29 low.
- USOIL failed to recover yesterday. It remains down nearly 4%, bottoming so far at $61.03. Price weakness has come following the EIA reporting US inventories at near 2-year highs on Wednesday. Supplies are expected to increase further in the next month, as refinery maintenance curbs crude demand. Hence, the $60.50 level is now a key Support, representing both the 50- and 200-day MAs.
Main Macro Events Today
- Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –The Euro Area CPI is expected to come out at 1.6% y/y, above March’s outcome.
- NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – April nonfarm payrolls are expected to have stood by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for a y/y gain of 3.3%, up from 3.2% in March.
Support and Resistance
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