Following the FOMC meeting last week, two interest rate decisions (RBA and RBNZ) are scheduled next week. An on-hold stance is expected from RBA and more easing by RBNZ. From an economic perspective, GDP releases are the highlights, while with the focus on geopolitical trade tensions, data releases are likely to be overlooked.
Monday – 05 August 2019
- Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK Services PMI is expected to stay unchanged at 50.2, a three-month low and drop from May’s 51.0 reading.The indicator effectively signals stagnation, with the sector only expanding fractionally, and at risk of tipping into recession; a consequence of both Brexit-related uncertainty and geopolitical trade tensions.
- Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.5 in July from 55.1 in June and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. The available July sentiment surveys have partly reversed the June downdraft in sentiment, though we’ve seen divergent swings for some measures.
Tuesday – 06 August 2019
- Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% (June and July saw the first back-to-back rate trimming since 2012). The latest data has strengthened the view that the RBA, after implementing back-to-back rate cuts, will be on hold for the foreseeable, albeit retaining a dovish policy stance.
- JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. June’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 7.268M, following the 7.32M in May.
Wednesday – 07 August 2019
- Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00-03:00) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to proceed with a second rate cut this year. The consensus presents a 25bp rate cut.
- Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Canada’s July Ivey PMI is expected to improve 2.6 points to 55.00 after the decline seen in June. The data is supportive of the steady policy story, as the economy returns to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.”
Thursday – 08 August 2019
- Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter from the 0.6% in the first quarter, reflecting weaker exports due to cooling global demand and trade tensions.
Friday – 09 August 2019
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP for the second quarter could be seen declining due to the renewed rise in no-deal Brexit risks which negatively impacted data releases, and the slump in the June manufacturing PMI which highlights the extent of the deterioration in sentiment. The preliminary release of UK Q2 GDP growth is expected at the 1.4% y/y figure from the 1.8%seen in the last quarter.
- Employment Change (CAD , GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in July, compared to the decline 2.2k in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%. A possible lack in total jobs during July is unlikely to challenge the BoC’s steady-as-it-goes policy position.
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