Election Highly likely


The anti no-deal bill passed in the House of Commons last night, and is now in the House of Lords (the upper house in the UK’s parliamentary system), where it is being bogged down by the tabling of over 100 amendments by pro-Brexit peers to try and filibuster the motion and stop the bill going ahead.

Despite this, most political pundits seem to be expecting that the bill will pass in the Lords and become law.

Prime Minister Johnson, who’s position is now politically untenable, submitted a motion calling for an out-of-cycle election, but, in another defeat, failed to gain the necessary two thirds support in the House of Commons.

The opposition are insisting that the no-deal bill is first passed into law, worried that Johnson might try and rig an election after Brexit has been triggered on October 31. In an election, Johnson will fancy his chances, though a coalition with the Brexit Party might be a necessity if he is to return to No.10 with a working majority.

The Brexit Party is demanding a guarantee of a no-deal Brexit for this to happen. The problem for the anti-no-deal Brexit opposition is that there are a group with widely disparate views on how Brexit should be resolved, ranging from Brexit with a deal and multi-year transition period, to holding a second referendum, to a cancelling Brexit altogether.

The Labour Party’s position on Brexit also remains foggy, aside from being against leaving the EU without a deal. It’s clear that the pro-remaining-in-the-EU Liberal Democrats will concentrate support for the Remain base, though polls suggest support might not be enough to beat the Tories in the UK’s first past the post electoral system.

The biggest threat to Johnson would be a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

The Pound posted an 8-day high against the Dollar at 1.2285 — a rise of over 3% from the major-trend low seen on Tuesday.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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