Events to Look Out For Next Week

This week the focus mainly falls on the two interest rate decisions and CPI releases. Australia will release most of its data, while NFP stands out as the event of the week.

Monday – 29 October 2018

  • European Commission Economic Growth Forecasts (JPY, NA)  The European Commission produces forecasts for a wide set of economic variables covering all EU countries for the next two years. The hour of the release of the report is not specified.
  • PCE Prices and Index (USD, GMT 11:30) – The Fed’s favourite inflation measure is expected to have increased by 0.1% on a m/m basis, up from 0% last month. The PCE index is expected to remain stable at 2% y/y, similar to August.
  • Building Permits (AUD, 23:30) – The Australian housing sector has been facing issues in the past months but consensus forecasts suggest that a comeback would have occurred in September, which is expected to have grown by 3%, compared to a 9.4% reduction in August.

Tuesday – 30 October 2018

  • Real GDP Q3 (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Real GDP in the Euro Area is expected to have increased by 0.4% on a q/q basis, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 23:30) – The Australian CPI is expected to have decreased to 1.9% in Q3 on a y/y basis, compared to 2.1% in the previous month, perhaps reflecting the weakening observed in the Australian economy over the last quarter.

Wednesday – 31 October 2018

  • Interest Rate Decision (JPY, NA) – Event of the Week – While BoJ has not been as eloquent and verbose as other Central Banks around the world, they are expected to keep the interest rate as it is, given that it appears to have finally had an impact on the Japanese economy.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Core inflation in the Euro Area is expected to have increased to 1% in October, compared to 0.9% in September, while the overall index is also expected to have increased to 2.2%, compared to 2.1% last month.
  • Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 23:30) – Exports are an important determinant of the Australian economy’s growth. In September, the trade balance surplus was expected to have increased to AUD1.7 trillion compared to AUD1.6 trillion last month.

Thursday – 01 November 2018

  • Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Just before the BoE meeting, the October manufacturing PMI is expected to come out lower than last month, but still supporting growth, standing at 53.
  • Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) –  Event of the Week – BoE does not appear to be willing to increase interest rates before a Brexit agreement is reached, despite a higher than desired inflation rate. Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting.
  • Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM PMI in the US is expected to come out at about 59.6 in October, compared to 59.8 in September, supporting the strong economic climate, despite the small decrease in its value.

Friday – 02 November 2018

  • Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The Index is expected to have decreased to 51.9 compared to 52.1 in September, however still signifying an expansionary economy.
  • Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the Week – One of the most important monthly figures on the US economy, NFP is expected to have increased by 181K in October, compared to 121K in September as a result of the hurricane season. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained stable at 3.7%.
  • Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have remained stable at 5.9% in October.

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Dr Nektarios Michail

Market Analyst

HotForex

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