Following the big defeat on May’s Brexit deal, this week PM May will return to Parliament with an alternative Brexit plan. Two Central Banks’ Monetary Policy Meetings stand out as the events of the week, preceded by Chinese GDP.
Monday – 21 January 2019
- China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.3% y/y pace in Q4, which would put growth at 6.6% in 2018, running at the slowest pace since the 6.4% clip in Q1 of 2009.
Tuesday – 22 January 2019
- Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 22-25 January
- Average Earnings Index including bonus (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings are expected to be in line with the 3.3% increase in November, in reflection of the slight improvement in the UK economy. UK unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 4.1% in November.
- Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – New Zealand inflation is expected to have decreased by 1.8% y/y in Q4, edging lower than the 1.9% observed in Q3.
Wednesday – 23 January 2019
- Event of the week – Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 12:45) – Among the core central banks, BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”. Hence once again BoJ is expected to keep the interest rate as it is, given that it appears to have finally had an impact on the Japanese economy.
- Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have slipped 0.5% in November after a 0.3% growth in October.
Thursday – 24 January 2019
- Event of the week – ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference (EUR, GMT 12:45) – The central bank is likely to keep rate guidance unchanged at the January meeting, while rates are expected to remain on hold at least through the summer of this year. The ECB is likely to catch up with the changed growth outlook and turn cautious, similarly to December’s meeting, while President Draghi is likely to sound dovish as the balance of risks is tilting to the downside.
- Tokyo CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Tokyo CPI Index, the leading indicator for Japan’s inflation performance, is to remain unchanged at 0.9% in January.
Friday – 25 January 2019
- German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. January’s numbers are expected to show a slight decline in business climate, at 100.6 from 101 last month.
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